英国威廉希尔公司陈言博士（亚利桑那州立大学凯瑞商学院经济学博士）与上海交通大学张严教授合作的论文“Tariff and Equilibrium Indeterminacy, a Global Analysis,”被国际权威宏观经济学期刊Macroeconomic Dynamics(SSCI, JCRImpact Factor 0.732)接受（刊登在Macroeconomic Dynamics,Vol. 16, Supplement No. 3, 2012）。

以下是此篇论文的摘要：

Abstract

Zhang (2009) shows that endogenous tariffs (or energy taxes) and endogenous labor income taxes [Schmitt-Grohe and Uribe (1997)] are equivalent in generating local indeterminacy. Using the methods developed by Stockman (2010), we extend Zhang’s analysis to prove that endogenous tariffs and endogenous labor income taxes are also equivalent in generating global indeterminacy (Chaotic Equilibria) under a balanced-budget rule. More precisely, we show that the existence of Euler equation branching in an arbitrarily small neighborhood of a steady state can imply topological chaos in the sense of Devaney. In addition, Euler equation branching occurs regardless of the local uniqueness of the equilibrium around the steady state.

Keywords:Endogenous Tariff Rate, Regime Switching, Chaos.